Latest religious trends

While Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O'Connor, as we report, has been arguing the case for the need for religion in our society, some commentators have been querying the statistics on which I based my story  and commentary of yesterday. One person has even suggested the whole report does not exist, as they couldn't find it on the Christian Research website! Well I wonder why they have not put it up there? What could their reasons possibly be!  I understand that the view among senior staff at the C of E is that there is no problem here with the journalism, although they are concerned that I could have better reflected in my report the inadequacy of Christian Research's methodology. Their official statement is here. Also, see Rev John Richardson's excellent and refreshingly honest analysis of the substance of my report and the CR research. Ron Dreher on BeliefNet also has a good understanding of the issues.

For those of you who want to check it out, the report does exist, it was published on Tuesday and if you doubt it, the ISBN is 978-1-85321-176-8. Below I've reproduced the three tables most relevant to what I wrote. They are tables 12.6.1, which forecasts church attendance tghroughout the whole of Great Britain in 2050 to be at 899,000, down from around four million today, while 12.8 shows how the number of religiously active Muslims will increase from around a million today to 2.66 million in 2050, with the crossover taking place around 2035.

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Comments

[john.griffiths7]

I think you'll find that 'active membership' is based on annual attendance and the church attendance refers to weekly for which read Sunday services. Which is why the figures ought not to be directly compared.

My concern is that despite an overall trend towards decline there are other factors that have to be considered. I couldn't find the piece on the BBC site where I am sure I saw it a month ago but some 33 London churches are complaining that the planning authorities won't allow them to move to larger premises. The signs for the CofE may not be good (I shivered at the empty (Anglican) space in the photo in your article) - but in the capital the changing ethnicity of churches is resulting in some startling signs of growth - its Christianity Jim but not as we know it. The only reference to this story I could find was here on TWR - http://www.inspiremagazine.org.uk/news.aspx?action=view&id=2306

not the best of references but I knew I had seen it somewhere.

[Br_er Rabbit]

So at what point shall we consider that we have finally transitioned into a post-Christian society? It is clear that we will not be entering a post-religious society. The Muslims will be the powerhouse religion and the Hindus (at least in the UK) will be the alternative. Christianity is dying, my friends.

[Tom Jackson]

Affluence and Christianity are, in the main, incompatible.

That is, of course, a generalisation but true nethertheless. It also suggests a relationship between relative poverty and the need to turn to Christ which is also not always the case. And it suggests that those whose fears and worries have been totally banished by the acquisition of wealth do not, at times, recognise a need for Christ.

But, as a generalisation, it should be no surprise that Christianity is growing in those impoverished communities of the world and declining in countries such as the US and UK.

Those of us in affluent societies have plenty to divert us from the reality of death, the search for understanding of our existence and creation. I, myself, am engrossed this weekend in the race for the Premiership title, for example.

And while I am upset and concerned at what is happening in Burma, my house is dry; I have food in my belly and my children are not drowning in flood waters.

There are those who contribute smugly to this blog, cynically and sarcastically stomping on the Christian faith that many of us have. I sometimes wonder of many of them have experienced despair, loneliness, hunger or pain.

If they did, was any search for spiritual salvation unrealistically coloured by lack of understanding or openness about their needs and what God’s response in a worldly context is likely to be?

It is sad that such cynicism prevails in our community, that such an unattractive trait have become a growing characteristic of this prosperous country we live in.

[George Parr]

http://www.forbes.com/lifestyle/forbes/2008/0519/140.html?partner=aol

Hi, Ruth have a look at this for the latest trends - burgeoning sales of relics from closing churches. More than vaguely unsettling!

Regards,
George.

[Rick Beekman]

The reason Church attendance is declining is because The World has more entertainment venues to miss Church.

The Flesh of ours Loves to be entertained and filled with activities and No time for God. The direct cause of this is two-fold; Lack of reading The Bible our "Roadmap to Heaven" and Lack of a Prayer Life.

One More Thing; Lack of Faith in an unseen God. People now a Days are looking for a "Quick Fix". Whether it be Entertainment such as Movies..Sports...Concerts...Auto Racing..Soccer...You Name it. The World Has Plenty to Offer..But No Time For The Creator And Savior...

[George Parr]

I have never actually met anyone 'whose fears and worries have been totally banished by the acquisition of wealth'. For most people in this society of spectacle and burgeoning information technology, they are seen to increase! And how do varying levels of wealth relate to faith in real terms?

How can wealth and Christianity mutually exclude each other if, as Tom asserts, the general statement that they do is true?

Poverty is not the determining factor here is it? Declining attendance in churches reflects numerous sociological factors - one, in no small part relates to a broadening of thinking and the rational acceptance that 'religious' moral permutations, attitudes and directives, being man-made have little substance or relevance and often are lacking in probity. In this I wholly separate 'religion' from genuine faith.

It is no secret that authoritarian aspects of Christianity, beloved of those mourning the passing of, or advocating a return to the rosy but absent 'traditional values' of the 1950s, do not connect with today's society. This is then held up by those clinging to the past as an ever present example of decadence.

None of this affects the diverse notions of spirituality experienced by morally aware, tolerant and concerned people, religious or not.

[Octavian]

Church is declining because the institution is not credible. The institution is not credible because it's run by a load of out-of-touch old men who, among other things, persist in telling other people how to manage their sex lives; they discriminate against gay people and women, while telling everyone else how to behave. It's pretty disgusting, actually, and they deserve to die out, which is what is happening.

[Matt Wardman]

This is more fun than "Unique Users" on websites.

[jim]

From Tom "There are those who contribute smugly to this blog, cynically and sarcastically stomping on the Christian faith that many of us have. I sometimes wonder of many of them have experienced despair, loneliness, hunger or pain.
If they did, was any search for spiritual salvation unrealistically coloured by lack of understanding or openness about their needs and what God’s response in a worldly context is likely to be?"

So Tom, so you even for a second consider that all atheists have never experienced pain or suffering or sorrow. We wish! Life stomps on all of us at times, and we all suffer and all die. Illogical, implausible, supernatural looking ways of dealing with life's hardships aren't a solution we see as in any way useful in dealing with our problems. We openly seek other useful modes of help. Your chosen way of dealing with your problems isn't useful for us.

[David Palmer]

I think we have to be careful about statistics that purport to paint the way things will be in 2050. However everything I hear about the health of the church in Scotland is downright negative.

Certainly the shenanigans in the liberal end of the Anglican Communion are not helpful to the health of those constituent parts. It is now almost 2 decades since I lived in the UK, but how are churches at the evangelical end of the spectrum doing?

In Australia the statistics are clearly demonstrating that conservative churches, Sydney Anglicans, Baptists, Penties, etc are growing numerically in line or above the population increase, just as the (liberal) Uniting Church is in precipitous decline.

Having said that, Church attendance across the board for the anglo celtic component has fallen significantly compared to 40 years ago. I think this has been largely to do with the nominals dropping out.

But George and others don't count us out yet - plenty of young people in the Presbyterian Church I attend, and they are (generally) marrying young and having children, whom they either home school or send to Christian schools.

Interesting to see the % of men is forecast to increase.

[Ed Tomlinson]

Of course you upset the instition- by daring to suggest that the emporer is naked! It dri ves me crazy when will the C of E WAKE UP and get proactive?!!! Things are in terminal decline but it is not too late if we act NOW.

The main crux of the issue is that the C of E still tries to justify maintaining an infrastructure set up to cater for 19th Century Britain when most people went to church. Rather than adapt to the reality today it tries to pretend all is well as the Bishops' response indicates.

We simply have FAR to many buildings - each with a pitiful number inside. Here in my own town we have no less that NINE compared to ONE for the Romans. So their maintanance bill is vastly less than ours. Yes a cull would hurt- we may even lose the few who worship bricks but amputation is preferable to long term decay.

If you kept the same number of priests but shut a third of buildings- you might start to focus attention in the right place and act as a missionary church in a secular land rather than try to pretend to be the church of the nation.

Too many churches expend MASSIVE energy maintianing a building which grows impossible becuase the load is spread on a few shoulders. So why not gather four such congregations together- then when someone enters the doors -they are not presented with a tiny depressed bunch sitting in acrumbling edifice but a thriving group in a well maintained and loved church.

Alas the church has neither the will nor ability to listen. They modernise in all the wrong ways- ghstly common worship et al but preserve what does need addressing - infrastructure and approach, bah!

[Malcolm+]

A few observations.

It is always interesting to watch people drawing conclusions from statistics since most people have no idea about statistical analysis / interpretation, and since interpretation based on media coverage of reports like this tends to be less than comprehensive.

We already have indications that some of the media comparisons are not comparing like with like - for example, comparing stated affiliation of Muslims with frequent attendance in the CofE.

The second problem is a tendency to assume that figures tell us more than they tell us. This year's number is lower than last years number may well indicate a decline. Or it may indicate more stringent accounting. Or any number of other things.

In a previous life, I remember having to deal with howls of outrage showing that the average 16 year old student in a certain country performed better on math assessments than the average 16 year old student in Canada. Of course, the indicator in question did not include the fact that the percentage of students who stayed in school until age 16 was significantly lower in the other country. Eliminating poorer students is one way to improve test scores, I suppose, but . . .

A statistic tells you what it tells you - and that is all it tells you.

All that said, I think it is a fair assessment that overall adherence to the Church of England (and other constituent parts of the Anglican Communion in developed countries) is declining. This in turn suggests that these churches need to do church differently if they want to reverse the apparent trend.

The criticism that the CofE is stuck in the past, while doubtless at least partly true, is not entirely fair. There have been a number of creative responses. Several are recounted in the CofE publication "The Mission-Shaped Church."

Some would like to make this a liberal - conservative thing. There's not a lot of evidence to support that, really. There are liberal parishes that are thriving, and there are conservative parishes that are rapidly declining.

Some analysis suggests that the difference between thriving and declining parishes isn't about their place on the liberal - conservative spectrum or their churchmanship or even the talent and charisma of the clergy. This analysis would suggest that the biggest indicator of the likely trend in a parish has to do with the parish's focus. Is it focussed on mission or on maintenance?

One poster points out the growth of evangelica protestant churches in the US. (Evangelical here in it's North American vice UK sense.) There is some statistical evidence to suggest that the overall growth in numbers hides a particular reality - that individual congregations will grow rapidly and then decline almost as rapidly. Some portion of the US evangelical growth seems to be those who are looking for the next new thing, who are ready to move on when the new thing becomes the least bit stale.

There is also a tendency for churches to reach out to young people in ways that are simply off-putting. One American blog described the phenomenon in terms of yuppies asking young people what they wanted - and then deciding the young people were wrong.

As to the suggestion that the present unpleasantness in Anglicanism is a stumbling block to mission, I would certainly agree. That said, my own experience suggests that the fuss over Bishop Robinson is more of an impediment to mission that the sexuality of Bishop Robinson.

[Mike Homfray]

Tom: I would agree that when you have nothing, one might cry out to a 'God' - but that is surely anything but a recommendation? Essentially, it suggests that once affluent, we no longer require this rather foolish 'crutch'. It is only needed to give 'false hope'...yes, its pie in the sky when you die.

Much better to learn to live without the need for the god delusion.